Tuesday 6 April 2010

Good News?

The United States is amending it's nuclear response doctrine:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8604217.stm

However - "countries will only be spared a US nuclear response if they comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty - this does not include Iran and North Korea"

There is no lessening of tensions with the two most likely antagonists then. Can you think of any other countries which would attack the US mainland? I can't.

As far as the START treaty goes, Obama has also avoided real reform. A 30% reduction in nuclear warheads is indeed a start, but can only reasonably be seen as a temporary hiatus in the arms race. There are still more than enough bombs to cause a catastrophic environmental fallout from any serious exchange between the US, Russia or China.

I'm not a believer in unilateral disarmament, nor am I an expert in diplomacy, but none of this fulfills expectations of the new world order awakened by Obama's campaign.

In fact, I'm ready to accept that mutually assured destruction can work. It has done since at least 1953. Between two relatively responsibly run nations it makes sense. If this was all we had to worry about, I'd probably be happy with the START status quo. However, given that deliverable nuclear weapons are now becoming achievable for so many medium sized and potentially unstable states, surely the US and Russia should be doing more?

As it is all innovation introduces instability into a complex balance. This can only be bad.

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